Is Rick Nash leaving this team really that bad?

Cursory glances at his statistics would seem to shout that it is, in fact, a very big deal that the leading scorer of the Blue Jackets for pretty much his entire career is leaving the team, but upon a more detailed glance at his statistics, change may not be so bad for the Blue Jackets and it may not be so bad for him. Don’t get the wrong impression though, anyone who believes that Rick Nash isn’t every bit the talented and amazing player that he is has a head further in the clouds than Bryzgalov.

First and foremost, in the 29 games that the Jackets won this last season that Rick Nash participated in, he scored 14 goals and 27 total points with a +/- rating of 15. That’s pretty impressive, nearly a point per game pace and being up 15 in the +/- category is not too shabby either. This is the kind of player we all think of when we think Rick Nash and the kind of player the Blue Jackets need. If you look at the staggering 53 games Rick Nash played where the Jackets lost, he scored 16 goals, 32 total points with a +/- rating of -34. It would not be necessarily wrong to blame that -34 on the cardboard cutout of Steve Mason that played in Steve Mason’s place all last season but you cannot place all the blame on the goalie. That’s even considering that the goalie was Steve Mason.

"What do ya mean 'get back in the net'?" Anne-Marie Sorvin-US PRESSWIRE

Let’s crunch some more numbers. Zekebud of Jackets Cannon laid out a very detailed analysis of Rick Nash and how he contributes to the team using the GVT statistic. For those who don’t know what a GVT is, you can learn more about it here. Basically, it’s a flat number that sets an easy to recognize value to a hockey player. As you may have guessed by now, Rick Nash has the highest GVT on the Blue Jackets with a 9.5 GVT rating. This number is actually lower than his production over the last 2 seasons, but when you’re a Blue Jackets fan you try not to delve much into the past. Anyway, Rick Nash has a 9.5 GVT, as mentioned. The popular rumor is that trading Rick Nash would facilitate the removal of Steve Mason in goal. If you check Steve Mason’s GVT, it is -19.3. For those who aren’t so good at math, this means that Rick Nash would have to be twice as good to even out the level of suck brought by Steve Mason. Removing Nash from the picture ostensibly removes Steve Mason from the picture. Without any player additions, that makes the Blue Jackets, as a whole, 9.8 GVT better than they are right now. Imagine that, no more cap hits from Mason or Nash and the team as a whole gets 9.8 GVT better. According to PuckProspectUs.com, that would be the equivalent of adding Nicklas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall or Dennis Wideman to the team free of charge. Think about that for just a second. Just removing Rick Nash and Steve Mason together is already the equivalent of adding Niklas Kronwall to the team and that’s not counting whoever the Blue Jackets get for Nash. Just removing Nash and Mason at the same time, the Jacket have gotten back all the positive they lost from Nash and then another Rick Nash worth right on top of it.

There are other things to consider as well, as the lack of depth at the forward line in general for the Blue Jackets. As Matt from inwordsandphrases.com will tell you, the Jackets don’t have a lot of strength at forward when compared to winning teams. With only two players that hit the .7 points per game plateau, it can be said with no argument that the Jackets are among the most shallow teams. While this is a problem that trading Rick Nash won’t fix, the Jackets are obviously in need of better goal tending. If the Nashville Predators, who have only one player that hit the .7 and .8 points per game plateau—and it was the same guy who hit both—have proven anything, it’s that defense and goaltending win games just as much as having a bunch of high scoring forwards. Even more so in some cases, defensively minded teams like the New York Rangers and Phoenix Coyotes made it further than the “goal every 2 minutes” flavor of hockey played by the Pittsburgh Penguins, Vancouver Canucks and Philadelphia Flyers.

For what it’s worth, Rick Nash really is worth every player that Scott Howson manages to squeeze out of him, so this should not be an account of Rick Nash being a bad player because he absolutely is not. The numbers don’t lie, though, and removing Rick Nash in order to get a better goalie is, far and wide, one of the smartest moves that the Jackets could possibly make.

Is Rick Nash Leaving Really That Bad? - Fire That Cannon - Fire That Cannon - A Columbus Blue Jackets blog

April 5, 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche goalie Semyon Varlamov (1) defends a shot attempt by Columbus Blue Jackets center Derick Brassard (16) The Blue Jackets defeated the Avalanche, 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

Center Derick Brassard is very interesting This Link is to his career statistics. This year his shooting % was .112. As a reference R Nash was .098, Mark Letestu was .105,  RJ Umberger was .100 and Vinny Prospal was .097. True most of this scoring was done after Scott Arneil left and Derick was reinstated into the top 6 forwards. Still his faceoff win % is only about 45%. And more still, it was a stressful season for him. first he was banished to the press box as a healthy scratch. Then playing on the bottom 6 and not always as center. Then back to the top 6. His contract extends for 2 more years and his salary next year is $ 3.3 million. He will turn 25 in September.

The knock on Derick Brassard is that he was a first round  [#6] pick in the draft and “has never fulfilled his potential”. For a fact, I sat in sections behind the goal after he returned to the top 6, and he was playing like a demon and skating like a freight train [guess that shows my age] At the time I thought he was the most impressive player on the ice. Having said that the next issue is consistency, He hasn’t been.  True, he is still young, but that’s wearing thin also. This year is about the make or break year for him. He has had the chances, he has had trials, and he seemed to weather them and rebound in great style and effort. But is it for real? And is it for real for a whole season? I truly believe the blue Jackets are going to establish a hard work approach to the season. If this does not provide the platform for a good season, then he is not going to ever “develop to his full potential”.

With the centers presently on the roster, he would be a top 6 center. But the dust has not risen, let alone settled on the trading season. He is an asset, and I believe to some teams a desirable asset. Could /will he be traded? Possible. Could a Rick Nash trade include a center, very possible.

Personally, I would like to keep him. From a hard hearted GM standpoint, I would trade him If I thought the deal was right. The 45% has been too consistent for too long. Again I say keep him, but be ready if a real opportunity comes.

We Want the Cup – Next Years Players? Derick Brassard - Fire That Cannon - Fire That Cannon - A Columbus Blue Jackets blog